On the other hand, the world already contains over 8 billion human intelligences. So I think you are assuming that a few million AGIs, possibly running at several times human speed (and able to work 24⁄7, exchange information electronically, etc.), will be able to significantly “outcompete” (in some fashion) 8 billion humans? This seems worth further exploration / justification.
Good point, but a couple of thoughts:
the operational definition of AGI referred in the article is significantly stronger than the average human
the humans are poorly organized
the 8 billion humans are supporting a civilization, while the AGIs can focus on AI research and self-improvement
All of this is plausible, but I’d encourage you to go through the exercise of working out these ideas in more detail. It’d be interesting reading and you might encounter some surprises / discover some things along the way.
Note, for example, that the AGIs would be unlikely to focus on AI research and self-improvement if there were more economically valuable things for them to be doing, and if (very plausibly!) there were not more economically valuable things for them to be doing, why wouldn’t a big chunk of the 8 billion humans have been working on AI research already (such that an additional 1.6 million agents working on this might not be an immediate game changer)? There might be good arguments to be made that the AGIs would make an important difference, but I think it’s worth spelling them out.
Good point, but a couple of thoughts:
the operational definition of AGI referred in the article is significantly stronger than the average human
the humans are poorly organized
the 8 billion humans are supporting a civilization, while the AGIs can focus on AI research and self-improvement
All of this is plausible, but I’d encourage you to go through the exercise of working out these ideas in more detail. It’d be interesting reading and you might encounter some surprises / discover some things along the way.
Note, for example, that the AGIs would be unlikely to focus on AI research and self-improvement if there were more economically valuable things for them to be doing, and if (very plausibly!) there were not more economically valuable things for them to be doing, why wouldn’t a big chunk of the 8 billion humans have been working on AI research already (such that an additional 1.6 million agents working on this might not be an immediate game changer)? There might be good arguments to be made that the AGIs would make an important difference, but I think it’s worth spelling them out.