All of this is plausible, but I’d encourage you to go through the exercise of working out these ideas in more detail. It’d be interesting reading and you might encounter some surprises / discover some things along the way.
Note, for example, that the AGIs would be unlikely to focus on AI research and self-improvement if there were more economically valuable things for them to be doing, and if (very plausibly!) there were not more economically valuable things for them to be doing, why wouldn’t a big chunk of the 8 billion humans have been working on AI research already (such that an additional 1.6 million agents working on this might not be an immediate game changer)? There might be good arguments to be made that the AGIs would make an important difference, but I think it’s worth spelling them out.
All of this is plausible, but I’d encourage you to go through the exercise of working out these ideas in more detail. It’d be interesting reading and you might encounter some surprises / discover some things along the way.
Note, for example, that the AGIs would be unlikely to focus on AI research and self-improvement if there were more economically valuable things for them to be doing, and if (very plausibly!) there were not more economically valuable things for them to be doing, why wouldn’t a big chunk of the 8 billion humans have been working on AI research already (such that an additional 1.6 million agents working on this might not be an immediate game changer)? There might be good arguments to be made that the AGIs would make an important difference, but I think it’s worth spelling them out.