Is it inconsistent with the original meaning of the term? I thought that the original meaning of inside view was just any methodology that wasn’t reference-class forecasting—and I don’t use the term “outside view” at all.
Also, I’m not saying that “inside view” means “real reason,” but that my real reason in this case is my inside view.
I regret saying anything! But since I’m in this hole now, might as well try to dig my way out:
IDK, “any methodology that wasn’t reference-class forecasting” wasn’t how I interpreted the original texts, but *shrugs.* But at any rate what you are doing here seems importantly different than the experiments and stuff in the original texts; it’s not like I can point to those experiments with the planning fallacy or the biased pundits and be like “See! Evan’s inside-view reason is less trustworthy than the more general thoughts he lists below; Evan should downweight its importance and not make it his ‘real reason’ for doing things.”
My thesis in “Taboo Outside View” was that we’d all be better off if, whenever we normally would use the term “inside view” and “outside view” we tabood that term and used something more precise instead. In this case, I think that if you just used “real reason” instead of “inside view,” it would work fine—but that’s just my interpretation of the meaning you were trying to convey; perhaps instead you were trying to convey additional information beyond “real reason” and that’s why you chose “inside view.” If so, you may be interested to know that said additional information never made it to me, because I don’t know what it might be. ;) Perhaps it was “real reason” + “This is controversial, and I’m not arguing for it here, I don’t expect everyone to agree”?
I guess meaning is use, and if enough people even after reading my post still feel compelled to use these terms without tabooing them, then fair enough, even if there isn’t a succinct definition of what they mean. I wish we had invented new words though instead of re-using “inside view” and “outside view” given that those terms already had meanings from Tetlock, Kahneman, etc.
Is it inconsistent with the original meaning of the term? I thought that the original meaning of inside view was just any methodology that wasn’t reference-class forecasting—and I don’t use the term “outside view” at all.
Also, I’m not saying that “inside view” means “real reason,” but that my real reason in this case is my inside view.
I regret saying anything! But since I’m in this hole now, might as well try to dig my way out:
IDK, “any methodology that wasn’t reference-class forecasting” wasn’t how I interpreted the original texts, but *shrugs.* But at any rate what you are doing here seems importantly different than the experiments and stuff in the original texts; it’s not like I can point to those experiments with the planning fallacy or the biased pundits and be like “See! Evan’s inside-view reason is less trustworthy than the more general thoughts he lists below; Evan should downweight its importance and not make it his ‘real reason’ for doing things.”
My thesis in “Taboo Outside View” was that we’d all be better off if, whenever we normally would use the term “inside view” and “outside view” we tabood that term and used something more precise instead. In this case, I think that if you just used “real reason” instead of “inside view,” it would work fine—but that’s just my interpretation of the meaning you were trying to convey; perhaps instead you were trying to convey additional information beyond “real reason” and that’s why you chose “inside view.” If so, you may be interested to know that said additional information never made it to me, because I don’t know what it might be. ;) Perhaps it was “real reason” + “This is controversial, and I’m not arguing for it here, I don’t expect everyone to agree”?
I guess meaning is use, and if enough people even after reading my post still feel compelled to use these terms without tabooing them, then fair enough, even if there isn’t a succinct definition of what they mean. I wish we had invented new words though instead of re-using “inside view” and “outside view” given that those terms already had meanings from Tetlock, Kahneman, etc.