My experience is that people seem to have a general single setting ‘risk-dial’ and are not taking lumpiness of risk into account much. Since they aren’t going to form a gears level model, it’s important for the list of ‘things that are actually dangerous’ to be small enough that they can remember them. I’ve been giving advice accordingly, most do not ask for details.
Agreed that this is how most people seem to effectively act, so you need to find a rule to tell them that 80/20s things as best one can. It’s unfortunate that this is *wildly* worse than having a gears model, but dunno what can be done about that.
My experience is that people seem to have a general single setting ‘risk-dial’ and are not taking lumpiness of risk into account much. Since they aren’t going to form a gears level model, it’s important for the list of ‘things that are actually dangerous’ to be small enough that they can remember them. I’ve been giving advice accordingly, most do not ask for details.
Agreed that this is how most people seem to effectively act, so you need to find a rule to tell them that 80/20s things as best one can. It’s unfortunate that this is *wildly* worse than having a gears model, but dunno what can be done about that.