This kind of thing has existed (for example optimal hardware layout) for decades. It sounds a lot less impressive when you sub out “AI” for “algorithm”.
“for certain aspects of computer science, computer scientists are already worse than even naive sorting algorithms”. Yes, we know that machines have a bunch of advantages over humans. Calculation speed and huge, perfect memory being the most notable.
Ok but how does this relate to your bet? I am claiming AI is very close to self improvement, a class of criticality. Note that for the purposes of progress/time, the case of :
AI researcher comes up with high level constraints for a search run and uses current gen AI to write the code for the bench. All the evaluations especially subjective ones (like “essay quality”) are done by AI. 99 percent of the steps for self improvement are done by AI.
AI does all self improvement steps by itself.
Are indistinguishable. (Humans are slow but compute at these scales is slower)
From the progress. Note I am referring to finetuned systems who have had practice runs at actual AI design, they haven’t just read all the literature.
Note that for certain aspects of AI design, AI researchers are already worse than even simple RL algorithms.
see autoML, see https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.14838
If the finetuned systems aren’t built for some reason, the bet doesn’t resolve either way.
This kind of thing has existed (for example optimal hardware layout) for decades. It sounds a lot less impressive when you sub out “AI” for “algorithm”.
“for certain aspects of computer science, computer scientists are already worse than even naive sorting algorithms”. Yes, we know that machines have a bunch of advantages over humans. Calculation speed and huge, perfect memory being the most notable.
Ok but how does this relate to your bet? I am claiming AI is very close to self improvement, a class of criticality. Note that for the purposes of progress/time, the case of :
AI researcher comes up with high level constraints for a search run and uses current gen AI to write the code for the bench. All the evaluations especially subjective ones (like “essay quality”) are done by AI. 99 percent of the steps for self improvement are done by AI.
AI does all self improvement steps by itself.
Are indistinguishable. (Humans are slow but compute at these scales is slower)