Ok but how does this relate to your bet? I am claiming AI is very close to self improvement, a class of criticality. Note that for the purposes of progress/time, the case of :
AI researcher comes up with high level constraints for a search run and uses current gen AI to write the code for the bench. All the evaluations especially subjective ones (like “essay quality”) are done by AI. 99 percent of the steps for self improvement are done by AI.
AI does all self improvement steps by itself.
Are indistinguishable. (Humans are slow but compute at these scales is slower)
Ok but how does this relate to your bet? I am claiming AI is very close to self improvement, a class of criticality. Note that for the purposes of progress/time, the case of :
AI researcher comes up with high level constraints for a search run and uses current gen AI to write the code for the bench. All the evaluations especially subjective ones (like “essay quality”) are done by AI. 99 percent of the steps for self improvement are done by AI.
AI does all self improvement steps by itself.
Are indistinguishable. (Humans are slow but compute at these scales is slower)