Ah, I managed to come up with a more concrete example of where Wal-mart is leaving local information on the table.
Wal-mart has large displays of featured items, internally known as COMAC. (No, I don’t know what it stands for, either.) These items come in as a bulk shipment, go on the shelf for two weeks, then come down: anything left over goes on the shelf or into the backstock bins. (A little birdie told me that they’ve eliminated the backstock bins for almost all departments now, so I’m not sure what they do with the leftovers now.) They form the big islands in the middle of the wider aisles (“action alleys”), as well as the endcaps of each regular aisle.
Once upon a time, department managers were encouraged to choose their COMAC. The company would send out an internal memo of what the recommendations were, but there would be several slots available for local discretion. Also, several of the slots would be decided at the regional or even district level. I seem to vaguely recall that, in the distant past, COMAC didn’t necessarily arrive automatically, and department managers could refuse to run a Bentonville-requested product in favor of something else.
This resulted in much greater sales:
Wal-mart could respond to a local competitor in the same city or even neighborhood. (My Wal-mart sold bananas for tens of cents per pound on Tuesdays for this reason.)
Wal-mart could sell products that complimented the specials of another local business.
Wal-mart could sell products that appealed to the clientele brought in by specific neighboring businesses. A Wal-mart next door to a PetCo is very different from a Wal-mart next door to a Lowe’s.
Wal-mart could sell seasonal products much more effectively: specials on juice drinks and popsicles timed precisely for the yearly local heatwave, or specials on road salt and windshield scrapers at just the right time of the year for the annual ice storm.
Then, The Party^W^WHome Office started taking more and more control away from the individual stores. First, centrally-planned COMAC was mandatory. Then, the internal competition among department managers for the highest-profit COMAC item was removed. Later, local options were taken away entirely. Finally, department managers were abolished entirely, demoted to hourly employees, and no human was in charge of analyzing the supply/demand logistics of the individual departments.
I’m sure that each of these individual decisions seemed rational to The Party^W^WHome Office. In fact, the decision to abolish COMAC choice probably contributed directly to slightly lower prices: by guaranteeing a specific size of bulk order to the manufacturer, the manufacturer would be willing to reduce the price a bit more. But most of this supply/demand data never made it to Bentonville: it existed only in the department managers’ heads, and to a lesser extent the Support and Assistant Managers above them.
Worst of all, the data looked at in Bentonville to make decisions did not include a breakdown on profitability per COMAC item per store. It was aggregated at the level of profitability per COMAC item, and profitability per store, but these were separate considerations looked at by separate corporate bureaucrats: the former chose COMAC items nationally, working with the buyers to find out what surpluses the suppliers wanted to get rid of, while the latter scolded stores for not meeting yearly sales and profit targets.
The logistics software, which examines per-item sellthrough rates on a per-store and per-district basis, could have spotted this… if a human were looking at it, and if it weren’t explicitly and intentionally disabled when an item goes on COMAC display. But the logistics software only computes running averages: it’s quite stupid, not even close to Bayesian, and it generates no theories on geography, seasons, or holidays. (I understand that day-of-week correlations are explicitly programmed in as a belief, but no more than that.)
Ah, I managed to come up with a more concrete example of where Wal-mart is leaving local information on the table.
Wal-mart has large displays of featured items, internally known as COMAC. (No, I don’t know what it stands for, either.) These items come in as a bulk shipment, go on the shelf for two weeks, then come down: anything left over goes on the shelf or into the backstock bins. (A little birdie told me that they’ve eliminated the backstock bins for almost all departments now, so I’m not sure what they do with the leftovers now.) They form the big islands in the middle of the wider aisles (“action alleys”), as well as the endcaps of each regular aisle.
Once upon a time, department managers were encouraged to choose their COMAC. The company would send out an internal memo of what the recommendations were, but there would be several slots available for local discretion. Also, several of the slots would be decided at the regional or even district level. I seem to vaguely recall that, in the distant past, COMAC didn’t necessarily arrive automatically, and department managers could refuse to run a Bentonville-requested product in favor of something else.
This resulted in much greater sales:
Wal-mart could respond to a local competitor in the same city or even neighborhood. (My Wal-mart sold bananas for tens of cents per pound on Tuesdays for this reason.)
Wal-mart could sell products that complimented the specials of another local business.
Wal-mart could sell products that appealed to the clientele brought in by specific neighboring businesses. A Wal-mart next door to a PetCo is very different from a Wal-mart next door to a Lowe’s.
Wal-mart could sell seasonal products much more effectively: specials on juice drinks and popsicles timed precisely for the yearly local heatwave, or specials on road salt and windshield scrapers at just the right time of the year for the annual ice storm.
Then, The Party^W^WHome Office started taking more and more control away from the individual stores. First, centrally-planned COMAC was mandatory. Then, the internal competition among department managers for the highest-profit COMAC item was removed. Later, local options were taken away entirely. Finally, department managers were abolished entirely, demoted to hourly employees, and no human was in charge of analyzing the supply/demand logistics of the individual departments.
I’m sure that each of these individual decisions seemed rational to The Party^W^WHome Office. In fact, the decision to abolish COMAC choice probably contributed directly to slightly lower prices: by guaranteeing a specific size of bulk order to the manufacturer, the manufacturer would be willing to reduce the price a bit more. But most of this supply/demand data never made it to Bentonville: it existed only in the department managers’ heads, and to a lesser extent the Support and Assistant Managers above them.
Worst of all, the data looked at in Bentonville to make decisions did not include a breakdown on profitability per COMAC item per store. It was aggregated at the level of profitability per COMAC item, and profitability per store, but these were separate considerations looked at by separate corporate bureaucrats: the former chose COMAC items nationally, working with the buyers to find out what surpluses the suppliers wanted to get rid of, while the latter scolded stores for not meeting yearly sales and profit targets.The logistics software, which examines per-item sellthrough rates on a per-store and per-district basis, could have spotted this… if a human were looking at it, and if it weren’t explicitly and intentionally disabled when an item goes on COMAC display. But the logistics software only computes running averages: it’s quite stupid, not even close to Bayesian, and it generates no theories on geography, seasons, or holidays. (I understand that day-of-week correlations are explicitly programmed in as a belief, but no more than that.)