I mostly agree with this post, except I’m not convinced it is very important. (I wrote some similar thought here.)
Raw power (including intelligence) will always be more important than having the upper hand in negotiation. Because I can only shift you up to the amount I can threaten you.
Let’s say I can cause you up to X utility of harm, according to your utility function. If I’m maximally skilled at blackmail negotiation then I can decide your action with in the set of action such that your utility is with in (max-X, max] utility.
If X utility is a lot, then I can influence you a lot. If X is not so much then I don’t have much power over you. If I’m strong then X will be large, and influencing your action will probably be of little importance to me.
Blackmail is only important when players are of similar straights which is probably unlikely, or if the power to destroy is much more than the power to create, which I also find unlikely.
The main scenario where I expect blackmail to seriously matter (among super intelligences) is in aclausal trade between different universes. I’m sceptical to this being a real thing, but admit I don’t have strong arguments on this point.
I agree raw power (including intelligence) is very useful and perhaps generally more desireable than bargaining power etc. But that doesn’t undermine the commitment races problem; agents with the ability to make commitments might still choose to do so in various ways and for various reasons, and there’s general pressure (collective action problem style) for them to do it earlier while they are stupider, so there’s a socially-suboptimal amount of risk being taken.
I agree that on Earth there might be a sort of unipolar takeoff where power is sufficiently imbalanced and credibility sufficiently difficult to obtain and “direct methods” easier to employ, that this sort of game theory and bargaining stuff doesn’t matter much. But even in that case there’s acausal stuff to worry about, as you point out.
In the real world, the power to destroy actually is usually a lot stronger than the the power to create. For example, it’s a lot easier to blow up an undefended building than to build one.
The laws of thermodynamics are the root of all evil.
I mostly agree with this post, except I’m not convinced it is very important. (I wrote some similar thought here.)
Raw power (including intelligence) will always be more important than having the upper hand in negotiation. Because I can only shift you up to the amount I can threaten you.
Let’s say I can cause you up to X utility of harm, according to your utility function. If I’m maximally skilled at blackmail negotiation then I can decide your action with in the set of action such that your utility is with in (max-X, max] utility.
If X utility is a lot, then I can influence you a lot. If X is not so much then I don’t have much power over you. If I’m strong then X will be large, and influencing your action will probably be of little importance to me.
Blackmail is only important when players are of similar straights which is probably unlikely, or if the power to destroy is much more than the power to create, which I also find unlikely.
The main scenario where I expect blackmail to seriously matter (among super intelligences) is in aclausal trade between different universes. I’m sceptical to this being a real thing, but admit I don’t have strong arguments on this point.
I agree raw power (including intelligence) is very useful and perhaps generally more desireable than bargaining power etc. But that doesn’t undermine the commitment races problem; agents with the ability to make commitments might still choose to do so in various ways and for various reasons, and there’s general pressure (collective action problem style) for them to do it earlier while they are stupider, so there’s a socially-suboptimal amount of risk being taken.
I agree that on Earth there might be a sort of unipolar takeoff where power is sufficiently imbalanced and credibility sufficiently difficult to obtain and “direct methods” easier to employ, that this sort of game theory and bargaining stuff doesn’t matter much. But even in that case there’s acausal stuff to worry about, as you point out.
In the real world, the power to destroy actually is usually a lot stronger than the the power to create. For example, it’s a lot easier to blow up an undefended building than to build one.
The laws of thermodynamics are the root of all evil.