Another interpretation is that the predictions were right about what was possible, but wrong about how long it would take. For example, Kurzweil’s 1999 predictions of what 2009 would look like were mostly wrong, but if instead you pretend they are predictions about 2019 they are almost entirely correct.
For example, Kurzweil’s 1999 predictions of what 2009 would look like were mostly wrong, but if instead you pretend they are predictions about 2019 they are almost entirely correct.
This isn’t right.
See Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results – “So, did more time allow for more perspective or more ways to go wrong? Well, Kurzweil’s predictions for 2019 were considerably worse than those for 2009, with more than half strongly wrong”
Nope, I’m right. I think you misunderstood what I was saying, given the quote you pull as evidence for your claim, which is about a different set of predictions than the one I’m talking about.
(In case there was an error of communication on my part, I’ll spell it out: Kurzweil made predictions for 2009 and for 2019. His predictions for 2009 were wrong and his predictions for 2019 were wronger. However, if you take his predictions for 2009 and pretend that they were predictions for 2019, they were mostly right.)
Interesting, could you provide a link?
Another interpretation is that the predictions were right about what was possible, but wrong about how long it would take. For example, Kurzweil’s 1999 predictions of what 2009 would look like were mostly wrong, but if instead you pretend they are predictions about 2019 they are almost entirely correct.
This isn’t right.
See Assessing Kurzweil predictions about 2019: the results – “So, did more time allow for more perspective or more ways to go wrong? Well, Kurzweil’s predictions for 2019 were considerably worse than those for 2009, with more than half strongly wrong”
Nope, I’m right. I think you misunderstood what I was saying, given the quote you pull as evidence for your claim, which is about a different set of predictions than the one I’m talking about.
(In case there was an error of communication on my part, I’ll spell it out: Kurzweil made predictions for 2009 and for 2019. His predictions for 2009 were wrong and his predictions for 2019 were wronger. However, if you take his predictions for 2009 and pretend that they were predictions for 2019, they were mostly right.)
(See e.g. this comment on the post you linked https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NcGBmDEe5qXB7dFBF/assessing-kurzweil-predictions-about-2019-the-results?commentId=H6ATdcezYzti8nsiK#comments)
Got it, thanks for clarifying