I really enjoy’d this writeup! I’d probably even go a little bit on the pessimistic (optimistic?) side, and bet that almost all of this technology would be possible with only a few years of development from today—though I suppose it might be 20 if development doesn’t start/ramp up in earnest.
If we put Elon Musk in charge of making it happen and gave him a hundred billion dollars, I think it could all be achieved in 5 − 10 years. If we had advanced-but-not-godlike AI, it would take less than a year. That’s my prediction anyway.
How can an AI that is 10 times as smart and innovative as Elon Musk not be godlike? xD
But seriously, if an AI is really capable of making such great headway in weapons technology, it is then surely capable of bootstrapping itself to superintelligence.
I was imagining an AI that is less smart and innovative than Elon Musk, but thinks faster and can be copied arbitrarily many times. Elon is limited to one brain thinking eighteen hours a day or so; the vast majority of the thought-work is done by the other humans he commands. If we had AI that could think as well as a pretty good engineer, but significantly faster, and we could make lots of copies fairly cheaply, then we’d be able to do things much faster than Elon can with his teams of humans.
I really enjoy’d this writeup! I’d probably even go a little bit on the pessimistic (optimistic?) side, and bet that almost all of this technology would be possible with only a few years of development from today—though I suppose it might be 20 if development doesn’t start/ramp up in earnest.
If we put Elon Musk in charge of making it happen and gave him a hundred billion dollars, I think it could all be achieved in 5 − 10 years. If we had advanced-but-not-godlike AI, it would take less than a year. That’s my prediction anyway.
How can an AI that is 10 times as smart and innovative as Elon Musk not be godlike? xD
But seriously, if an AI is really capable of making such great headway in weapons technology, it is then surely capable of bootstrapping itself to superintelligence.
I was imagining an AI that is less smart and innovative than Elon Musk, but thinks faster and can be copied arbitrarily many times. Elon is limited to one brain thinking eighteen hours a day or so; the vast majority of the thought-work is done by the other humans he commands. If we had AI that could think as well as a pretty good engineer, but significantly faster, and we could make lots of copies fairly cheaply, then we’d be able to do things much faster than Elon can with his teams of humans.