Interestingly, in 1960 the Foerster’s law has ended, but in 1965 the Moore’s law was born.
And in 2010s the Moore’s law is dying, but OpenAI’s law of growth in compute with 3 month doubling appeared.
This should not be surprising from the point of view of Spenser’s laws or progress (1857) where is said that the focal point of progress is constantly shifting to different domains and only inside this focal point the exponential progress is happening. (Note that this interpretation of Spenser’s laws comes from my university lecture, not form the reading of his book, and may be my interpretation of my teacher interpretation, but it seems correct, if we look on earlier explosions of innovations in different fields, like aviation).
I think that the focal point of progress is shifting towards the self-improving AI: that is, the focal point, where the growth of productivity increases the growth of productivity is moving form material supporting systems, like population, to intelligent systems, like computers and later to their programs.
This is exactly what I was thinking. With the ceiling limit on the population growth rate, we as humans have found an alternate way to “replicate” ourselves through Machines/Technologies and Organizations. And as the AI technology gets to the level of human research capability, it will bring the growth rate to hyperbolic path.
Interestingly, in 1960 the Foerster’s law has ended, but in 1965 the Moore’s law was born.
And in 2010s the Moore’s law is dying, but OpenAI’s law of growth in compute with 3 month doubling appeared.
This should not be surprising from the point of view of Spenser’s laws or progress (1857) where is said that the focal point of progress is constantly shifting to different domains and only inside this focal point the exponential progress is happening. (Note that this interpretation of Spenser’s laws comes from my university lecture, not form the reading of his book, and may be my interpretation of my teacher interpretation, but it seems correct, if we look on earlier explosions of innovations in different fields, like aviation).
I think that the focal point of progress is shifting towards the self-improving AI: that is, the focal point, where the growth of productivity increases the growth of productivity is moving form material supporting systems, like population, to intelligent systems, like computers and later to their programs.
This is exactly what I was thinking. With the ceiling limit on the population growth rate, we as humans have found an alternate way to “replicate” ourselves through Machines/Technologies and Organizations. And as the AI technology gets to the level of human research capability, it will bring the growth rate to hyperbolic path.