I just did a quick model of the 2016 elections, Clinton’s FiveThiryEight prediction model probability of winning versus Clinton’s percentage chance of winning based on betting odds for a range of dates. Here are the results:
August 18, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 81.82%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 86.40%
September 26, 2016*
Betting Market odds of winning: 68.25%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 54.80%
*This was debate night that year
October 25, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 84.62%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 85.00%
November 1, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 73.33%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 71.20%
I just did a quick model of the 2016 elections, Clinton’s FiveThiryEight prediction model probability of winning versus Clinton’s percentage chance of winning based on betting odds for a range of dates. Here are the results:
August 18, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 81.82%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 86.40%
September 26, 2016*
Betting Market odds of winning: 68.25%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 54.80%
*This was debate night that year
October 25, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 84.62%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 85.00%
November 1, 2016
Betting Market odds of winning: 73.33%
538 Prediction model odds of winning: 71.20%