It seems to me we should have a strong prior that it was lab-produced by the immediate high infectiousness. What evidence does Peter Miller provide to overcome that prior?
2nd edit after that: hmm that’s evidence against direct genetic manipulation but not necessarily against evolution within a lab. Back to being rather uncertain.
3rd edit: The “apparently” in the following seems rather suspicious:
COVID is hard to culture. If you culture it in most standard media or animals, it will quickly develop characteristic mutations. But the original Wuhan strains didn’t have these mutations. The only ways to culture it without mutations are in human airway cells, or (apparently) in live raccoon-dogs. Getting human airway cells requires a donor (ie someone who donates their body to science), and Wuhan had never done this before (it was one of the technologies only used at the superior North Carolina site). As for raccoon-dogs, it sure does seems suspicious that the virus is already suited to them.
I would like to know what the evidence is that these characteristic mutations don’t arise when cultured in raccoon-dogs. If that claim is false, it would be significant evidence in favour of a lab leak (if it’s true, it’s weaker but still relevant evidence for natural origin).
It seems to me we should have a strong prior that it was lab-produced by the immediate high infectiousness. What evidence does Peter Miller provide to overcome that prior?
edited to add:
on reading https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim , I found the discussion on how the Furin cleavage site was coded significantly changed my view towards natural origin (the rest of the evidence presented was much less convincing).
2nd edit after that: hmm that’s evidence against direct genetic manipulation but not necessarily against evolution within a lab. Back to being rather uncertain.
3rd edit: The “apparently” in the following seems rather suspicious:
I would like to know what the evidence is that these characteristic mutations don’t arise when cultured in raccoon-dogs. If that claim is false, it would be significant evidence in favour of a lab leak (if it’s true, it’s weaker but still relevant evidence for natural origin).