Regardless, it change my mind from about 70% likelihood of a lab-leak to about 1-5%. Manifold seems to agree, given the change from ~50% probability of lab-leak winning to 6%.
Manifold updating on who will win the debate to that extent is not the same as manifold updating to that extent on the probabilty of lab-leak (which various other markets seem to roughly imply is about 50⁄50, though the operationalization is usually a bit rough because we may not get further evidence).
Manifold updating on who will win the debate to that extent is not the same as manifold updating to that extent on the probabilty of lab-leak (which various other markets seem to roughly imply is about 50⁄50, though the operationalization is usually a bit rough because we may not get further evidence).