To expand on my predictions, I think that global poverty will be the most popular cause except among those who say they heard of EA through LessWrong (whose numbers I’ll be interested to see). I also think that skepticism/atheism will be the other social movement with which most identify, and atheism the most popular religious position. In the link Jacy Anthis has given a full set of predictions to test his accuracy.
Good point about LW affiliation—in addition I would add that results are highly dependent on how the survey is distributed. This makes large predictions difficult, but more specific predictions (like >80% of LW affiliations will identify as atheist/agnostic) might be the way to go.
I’m still getting familiar with this community, but I suppose it’s a fun exercise so I’ve added some thoughts to the excel sheet.
Yes, the survey asks where you heard of it itself, and what groups you’re a member of, and where you first heard of EA: LessWrong is a candidate for each. So you can make predictions for specific groups.
I definitely agree LW affiliation will be a major predictor of other results. Perhaps I should have made two sets of predictions (one for LW folks, one for others). - Jacy
Just to be clear, it wouldn’t be “LW affiliation”; it would be “heard of EA through LW”. I’m sure there are quite a few like me who learned about LW through EA, not the other way around.
[Thread for making and discussing predictions]
To expand on my predictions, I think that global poverty will be the most popular cause except among those who say they heard of EA through LessWrong (whose numbers I’ll be interested to see). I also think that skepticism/atheism will be the other social movement with which most identify, and atheism the most popular religious position. In the link Jacy Anthis has given a full set of predictions to test his accuracy.
Here are my predictions (on Prediction Book):
meat-eating
gender
favored cause
Fun site! Once you register, it lets you assign probabilities to predictions others have made.
I predict:
utilitarianism’s the most common philosophy
a clear majority will be non-religious, and respondents often identify with skepticism/atheism as a social movement
a clear majority are left wing
most respondents are under 30, with 50% students
people often heard of EA through Peter Singer
And the most significant outcome:
There will be many non-students without significant donations, which in my view is not a good thing at all
Good point about LW affiliation—in addition I would add that results are highly dependent on how the survey is distributed. This makes large predictions difficult, but more specific predictions (like >80% of LW affiliations will identify as atheist/agnostic) might be the way to go.
I’m still getting familiar with this community, but I suppose it’s a fun exercise so I’ve added some thoughts to the excel sheet.
Yes, the survey asks where you heard of it itself, and what groups you’re a member of, and where you first heard of EA: LessWrong is a candidate for each. So you can make predictions for specific groups.
I definitely agree LW affiliation will be a major predictor of other results. Perhaps I should have made two sets of predictions (one for LW folks, one for others). - Jacy
One thing that would be really interesting is comparing EA-LW folks with both the standard EA answers and the standard LW survey answers.
Just to be clear, it wouldn’t be “LW affiliation”; it would be “heard of EA through LW”. I’m sure there are quite a few like me who learned about LW through EA, not the other way around.
There are questions both about whether you’re a LessWrong member and whether you first heard of EA through LessWrong, so we can get data on both.