Good point about LW affiliation—in addition I would add that results are highly dependent on how the survey is distributed. This makes large predictions difficult, but more specific predictions (like >80% of LW affiliations will identify as atheist/agnostic) might be the way to go.
I’m still getting familiar with this community, but I suppose it’s a fun exercise so I’ve added some thoughts to the excel sheet.
Yes, the survey asks where you heard of it itself, and what groups you’re a member of, and where you first heard of EA: LessWrong is a candidate for each. So you can make predictions for specific groups.
Good point about LW affiliation—in addition I would add that results are highly dependent on how the survey is distributed. This makes large predictions difficult, but more specific predictions (like >80% of LW affiliations will identify as atheist/agnostic) might be the way to go.
I’m still getting familiar with this community, but I suppose it’s a fun exercise so I’ve added some thoughts to the excel sheet.
Yes, the survey asks where you heard of it itself, and what groups you’re a member of, and where you first heard of EA: LessWrong is a candidate for each. So you can make predictions for specific groups.