Adding some references:
The Wikipedia article for this family of statistical techniques is German tank problem
The Wikipedia article for its application to x-risk inference is Doomsday argument
There’s even an entire article about the Self-Indication Assumption rebuttal to the Doomsday Argument
A much shorter explanation of why the classic Doomsday argument fails was posted here on LW by Stuart Armstrong
Adding some references:
The Wikipedia article for this family of statistical techniques is German tank problem
The Wikipedia article for its application to x-risk inference is Doomsday argument
There’s even an entire article about the Self-Indication Assumption rebuttal to the Doomsday Argument
A much shorter explanation of why the classic Doomsday argument fails was posted here on LW by Stuart Armstrong