Ok, but Eliezer is saying that BOTH that his timelines are short (significantly less than 30 years) AND that he thinks ML isn’t likely to be the final paradigm (this judging from not just this conversation, but the other, real, ones in this sequence).
ML being the final paradigm would mean it would have to get ‘to the end’ before the next paradigm; the next paradigm will probably happen before 30 years; whatever the next paradigm is will be more impressive than the ML paradigm in some way—modest or dramatic. ML paradigm is pretty impressive, already, so anything notably more impressive than getting better at it seems likely to feel like a pretty sharp climb in capability.
Ok, but Eliezer is saying that BOTH that his timelines are short (significantly less than 30 years) AND that he thinks ML isn’t likely to be the final paradigm (this judging from not just this conversation, but the other, real, ones in this sequence).
ML being the final paradigm would mean it would have to get ‘to the end’ before the next paradigm; the next paradigm will probably happen before 30 years; whatever the next paradigm is will be more impressive than the ML paradigm in some way—modest or dramatic. ML paradigm is pretty impressive, already, so anything notably more impressive than getting better at it seems likely to feel like a pretty sharp climb in capability.