The post feels like it’s trying pretty hard to point towards an alternative forecasting method, though I also agree it’s not fully succeeding at getting there.
I feel like de-facto the forecasting methodology of people who are actually good at forecasting don’t usually strike me as low-inferential distance, such that it is obvious how to communicate the full methodology. My sense from talking to a number of superforecasters over the years is that they do pretty complicated things, and I don’t feel like the critique of “A critique is only really valid if it provides a whole countermethodology” is a very productive way of engaging with their takes. I feel like I’ve had lots of conversations of the type “X methodology doesn’t work” without someone being able to explain all the details of what they do instead, that were still valuable and helped me model the world, and said meaningful things. Usually the best they can do is something like “well, instead pay attention and build a model of these different factors”, which feels like a bar Eliezer is definitely clearing in this post.
I think it’s fine to say that you think something else is better without being able to precisely say what it is. I just think “the trick that never works” is an overstatement if you aren’t providing evidence about whether it has worked, and that it’s hard to provide such evidence without saying something about what you are comparing to.
(Like I said though, I just skimmed the post and it’s possible it contains evidence or argument that I didn’t catch.)
It’s possible the action is in disagreements about Moravec’s view rather than the lack of an alternative, but it’s hard to say because it’s unclear how good Eliezer thinks the alternative is. I think that looking at Moravec’s view in hindsight it doesn’t seem crazy at all, and e.g. I think it’s more reasonable than Eliezer’s views from 10 years later.
The post feels like it’s trying pretty hard to point towards an alternative forecasting method, though I also agree it’s not fully succeeding at getting there.
I feel like de-facto the forecasting methodology of people who are actually good at forecasting don’t usually strike me as low-inferential distance, such that it is obvious how to communicate the full methodology. My sense from talking to a number of superforecasters over the years is that they do pretty complicated things, and I don’t feel like the critique of “A critique is only really valid if it provides a whole countermethodology” is a very productive way of engaging with their takes. I feel like I’ve had lots of conversations of the type “X methodology doesn’t work” without someone being able to explain all the details of what they do instead, that were still valuable and helped me model the world, and said meaningful things. Usually the best they can do is something like “well, instead pay attention and build a model of these different factors”, which feels like a bar Eliezer is definitely clearing in this post.
I think it’s fine to say that you think something else is better without being able to precisely say what it is. I just think “the trick that never works” is an overstatement if you aren’t providing evidence about whether it has worked, and that it’s hard to provide such evidence without saying something about what you are comparing to.
(Like I said though, I just skimmed the post and it’s possible it contains evidence or argument that I didn’t catch.)
It’s possible the action is in disagreements about Moravec’s view rather than the lack of an alternative, but it’s hard to say because it’s unclear how good Eliezer thinks the alternative is. I think that looking at Moravec’s view in hindsight it doesn’t seem crazy at all, and e.g. I think it’s more reasonable than Eliezer’s views from 10 years later.