It seems like the ante, in support of any claim like “X forecasting method doesn’t work [historically],” is to compare it to some other forecasting method on offer—whatever is being claimed as the default to be used in X’s absence. (edited to add “historically”)
It looks to me like historical forecasts that look like biological anchors have fared relatively well compared to the alternatives, but I could easily be moved by someone giving some evidence about what kind of methodology would have worked well or poorly, or what kinds of forecasts were actually being made at the time.
The methodological points in this post may be sound even if it’s totally ungrounded in track record, but at that point the title is mostly misleading clickbait.
(My main complaint in this comment is “what’s the alternative you are comparing to?” That said, the particular claims about Moravec’s views also look fairly uncharitable to me, as Carl has pointed out and I’ve raised to Eliezer. It does not seem to me from reading Moravec’s writing in 1988 like he expects TAI in 2010 rather than 2030. Maybe Eliezer is better at understanding what people are saying. But he often describes the views of people in 2020, who I can talk to and confirm, and does not in fact do a good job.)
The post feels like it’s trying pretty hard to point towards an alternative forecasting method, though I also agree it’s not fully succeeding at getting there.
I feel like de-facto the forecasting methodology of people who are actually good at forecasting don’t usually strike me as low-inferential distance, such that it is obvious how to communicate the full methodology. My sense from talking to a number of superforecasters over the years is that they do pretty complicated things, and I don’t feel like the critique of “A critique is only really valid if it provides a whole countermethodology” is a very productive way of engaging with their takes. I feel like I’ve had lots of conversations of the type “X methodology doesn’t work” without someone being able to explain all the details of what they do instead, that were still valuable and helped me model the world, and said meaningful things. Usually the best they can do is something like “well, instead pay attention and build a model of these different factors”, which feels like a bar Eliezer is definitely clearing in this post.
I think it’s fine to say that you think something else is better without being able to precisely say what it is. I just think “the trick that never works” is an overstatement if you aren’t providing evidence about whether it has worked, and that it’s hard to provide such evidence without saying something about what you are comparing to.
(Like I said though, I just skimmed the post and it’s possible it contains evidence or argument that I didn’t catch.)
It’s possible the action is in disagreements about Moravec’s view rather than the lack of an alternative, but it’s hard to say because it’s unclear how good Eliezer thinks the alternative is. I think that looking at Moravec’s view in hindsight it doesn’t seem crazy at all, and e.g. I think it’s more reasonable than Eliezer’s views from 10 years later.
This is a long post that I have only skimmed.
It seems like the ante, in support of any claim like “X forecasting method doesn’t work [historically],” is to compare it to some other forecasting method on offer—whatever is being claimed as the default to be used in X’s absence. (edited to add “historically”)
It looks to me like historical forecasts that look like biological anchors have fared relatively well compared to the alternatives, but I could easily be moved by someone giving some evidence about what kind of methodology would have worked well or poorly, or what kinds of forecasts were actually being made at the time.
The methodological points in this post may be sound even if it’s totally ungrounded in track record, but at that point the title is mostly misleading clickbait.
(My main complaint in this comment is “what’s the alternative you are comparing to?” That said, the particular claims about Moravec’s views also look fairly uncharitable to me, as Carl has pointed out and I’ve raised to Eliezer. It does not seem to me from reading Moravec’s writing in 1988 like he expects TAI in 2010 rather than 2030. Maybe Eliezer is better at understanding what people are saying. But he often describes the views of people in 2020, who I can talk to and confirm, and does not in fact do a good job.)
The post feels like it’s trying pretty hard to point towards an alternative forecasting method, though I also agree it’s not fully succeeding at getting there.
I feel like de-facto the forecasting methodology of people who are actually good at forecasting don’t usually strike me as low-inferential distance, such that it is obvious how to communicate the full methodology. My sense from talking to a number of superforecasters over the years is that they do pretty complicated things, and I don’t feel like the critique of “A critique is only really valid if it provides a whole countermethodology” is a very productive way of engaging with their takes. I feel like I’ve had lots of conversations of the type “X methodology doesn’t work” without someone being able to explain all the details of what they do instead, that were still valuable and helped me model the world, and said meaningful things. Usually the best they can do is something like “well, instead pay attention and build a model of these different factors”, which feels like a bar Eliezer is definitely clearing in this post.
I think it’s fine to say that you think something else is better without being able to precisely say what it is. I just think “the trick that never works” is an overstatement if you aren’t providing evidence about whether it has worked, and that it’s hard to provide such evidence without saying something about what you are comparing to.
(Like I said though, I just skimmed the post and it’s possible it contains evidence or argument that I didn’t catch.)
It’s possible the action is in disagreements about Moravec’s view rather than the lack of an alternative, but it’s hard to say because it’s unclear how good Eliezer thinks the alternative is. I think that looking at Moravec’s view in hindsight it doesn’t seem crazy at all, and e.g. I think it’s more reasonable than Eliezer’s views from 10 years later.