Similar to what Ben said, you work out the conditional probabilities from other markets.
First, here’s a fact about probabilities that you’ll need to use: the probability of “A conditional on B” (for example, “Harris wins conditional on choosing Walz as her VP”) is equal to probability of “A and B” ÷ probability of “B” (so, “The Harris-Walz ticket wins” ÷ “Walz is the VP”) .
So whenever you want to know P(A|B) (the probability of “A conditional on B”), you can instead ask P(A&B) (probability of “A and B”) and P(B).
That’s what the linked market (more-or-less) does. It asks “who will be the next US VP?”. This is basically asking “if the presidential candidate picks this person as the VP, will their ticket win?”. You can divide this by the probability “will the relevant presidential candidate pick this person as VP”, to get the conditional probability you want.
Happy to clarify.
Similar to what Ben said, you work out the conditional probabilities from other markets.
First, here’s a fact about probabilities that you’ll need to use: the probability of “A conditional on B” (for example, “Harris wins conditional on choosing Walz as her VP”) is equal to probability of “A and B” ÷ probability of “B” (so, “The Harris-Walz ticket wins” ÷ “Walz is the VP”) .
So whenever you want to know P(A|B) (the probability of “A conditional on B”), you can instead ask P(A&B) (probability of “A and B”) and P(B).
That’s what the linked market (more-or-less) does. It asks “who will be the next US VP?”. This is basically asking “if the presidential candidate picks this person as the VP, will their ticket win?”. You can divide this by the probability “will the relevant presidential candidate pick this person as VP”, to get the conditional probability you want.