I think the one I disagree with is “Continued increases in testing capacity will slow spread and dramatic outbreaks, if they happen, will trigger the return of more aggressive measures with popular support. ” At least for realistic values of dramatic.
As I say explicitly, but perhaps not clearly enough, I’m highly uncertain whether the default level of response that we both kind of expect will be sufficient to beat this thing. I actually think it probably will be relatively fine, but with very low confidence.
The thing this expresses confidence in is that we’ve lost the state capacity to do anything to alter the course of events, other than somewhat slowing down the pace of reopening, should things not work out. That doesn’t mean everyone will party like it’s 2019. Whether the new normal is good enough, we’ll find out.
It’s good feedback that I come off as being much more confident of more things than I meant to express!
I think the one I disagree with is “Continued increases in testing capacity will slow spread and dramatic outbreaks, if they happen, will trigger the return of more aggressive measures with popular support. ” At least for realistic values of dramatic.
As I say explicitly, but perhaps not clearly enough, I’m highly uncertain whether the default level of response that we both kind of expect will be sufficient to beat this thing. I actually think it probably will be relatively fine, but with very low confidence.
The thing this expresses confidence in is that we’ve lost the state capacity to do anything to alter the course of events, other than somewhat slowing down the pace of reopening, should things not work out. That doesn’t mean everyone will party like it’s 2019. Whether the new normal is good enough, we’ll find out.
It’s good feedback that I come off as being much more confident of more things than I meant to express!