there’s no reason to think whatever miniscule probability the Singularity Institute assigns to the hopeful outcome is a better estimate than would be had by postulating reverse miniscule effects.
When I get in my car to drive to the grocery store, do you think there is any reason to favor the hypothesis that I will arrive at the grocery store over all the a priori equally unlikely hypotheses that I arrive at some other destination?
Depends. Do you know where the grocery store actually is? Do you have an accurate map of how to get there? Have you ever gone to the grocery store before?
Or is the grocery store an unknown, unsignposted location which no human being has ever visited or even knows how to visit?
Because if it was the latter, I’d bet pretty strongly against you not getting there...
The point of the analogy is that probability mass is concentrated towards the desired outcome, not that the desired outcome becomes more likely than not.
In a case where no examples of grocery stores have ever been seen, when intelligent, educated people even doubt the possibility of the existence of a grocery store, and when some people who are looking for grocery stores are telling you you’re looking in the wrong direction, I’d seriously doubt that the intention to drive there was affecting the probability mass in any measurable amount.
If you were merely wandering aimlessly with the hope of encountering a grocery store, it would only affect your chance of ending up there insofar as you’d intentionally stop looking if you arrived at one, and not if you didn’t. But our grocery seeker is not operating in a complete absence of evidence with regard to how to locate groceries, should they turn out to exist, so the search is, if not well focused, at least not actually aimless.
When I get in my car to drive to the grocery store, do you think there is any reason to favor the hypothesis that I will arrive at the grocery store over all the a priori equally unlikely hypotheses that I arrive at some other destination?
Depends. Do you know where the grocery store actually is? Do you have an accurate map of how to get there? Have you ever gone to the grocery store before? Or is the grocery store an unknown, unsignposted location which no human being has ever visited or even knows how to visit? Because if it was the latter, I’d bet pretty strongly against you not getting there...
The point of the analogy is that probability mass is concentrated towards the desired outcome, not that the desired outcome becomes more likely than not.
In a case where no examples of grocery stores have ever been seen, when intelligent, educated people even doubt the possibility of the existence of a grocery store, and when some people who are looking for grocery stores are telling you you’re looking in the wrong direction, I’d seriously doubt that the intention to drive there was affecting the probability mass in any measurable amount.
If you were merely wandering aimlessly with the hope of encountering a grocery store, it would only affect your chance of ending up there insofar as you’d intentionally stop looking if you arrived at one, and not if you didn’t. But our grocery seeker is not operating in a complete absence of evidence with regard to how to locate groceries, should they turn out to exist, so the search is, if not well focused, at least not actually aimless.