I do not know how to add a plugin, I would have done so. It is active on Metaculus currently.
Seems like we could bet about it being approved before April 1st profitably. I am comfortable with this bet because I assumed the FDA/CDC conservatives would win on vaccination priority and first doses first, but Alex Tabarrok won the first and is starting to win the second.
Sure. Just for fun/norm setting, I’ll bet $10 against your $10 that approval does not happen before March 15, assuming you accept the bet before Feb 1, and it wasn’t approved at the time you accepted.
That’s your 50% by March 1, with 2 weeks of leeway for you since a week has now passed without approval, and I don’t feel like doing complicated math.
Where’s the interactive prediction plugin for this post? :-)
If FDA is saying April, I would say 10% by March 1. 75% by April 1. 99% by May 1. 1% some freak event delays it until late in the year or never
I do not know how to add a plugin, I would have done so. It is active on Metaculus currently.
Seems like we could bet about it being approved before April 1st profitably. I am comfortable with this bet because I assumed the FDA/CDC conservatives would win on vaccination priority and first doses first, but Alex Tabarrok won the first and is starting to win the second.
Sure. Just for fun/norm setting, I’ll bet $10 against your $10 that approval does not happen before March 15, assuming you accept the bet before Feb 1, and it wasn’t approved at the time you accepted. That’s your 50% by March 1, with 2 weeks of leeway for you since a week has now passed without approval, and I don’t feel like doing complicated math.