Chance that Omicron has a 100% or bigger transmission advantage in practice versus Delta: 65% → 70%.
The new study says 161% in vaccinated people, 266% in the boosted, 17% in the unvaccinated. If you average that out, it’s higher than 100% in the populations we care about, but it’s somewhat close. Thus I’m creeping back up a bit.
Can you show your work? My quick BOTEC (making up plausible numbers for the other inputs) came out to a bit under 100%.
Can you show your work? My quick BOTEC (making up plausible numbers for the other inputs) came out to a bit under 100%.
No, you’re right, I was moving too fast and messed up.