Measure comments on D&D.Sci May 2021: Monster Carcass Auction

Measure 10 May 2021 14:01 UTC
1 point
Snow Serpent bid price is always 60/40/20 for 0/1/2 day old lots, never above 17 for older. Sale value is independent of age averaging around 27.2

Winter Wolf bid price is always ⁵⁰⁄₃₈ for ⁰⁄₁ day old lots, never above 23 for older. Sale value ranges from 37.9 for 1d lots to 25.5 for 7d lots. Older than 7d probably not worth bidding on.

Yeti bid price is always 55/49/43/37 for 0/1/2/3 day old lots, never above 35 for older. Sale value ranges from 74.6 for 0d lots to around 42 for 9-11d lots.

Based on the anticipated bid price and expected sale value of each lot, I calculated a profit margin for each as (sale—win)/win.
```
   Lot #     Bid     Win    Sale  Profit  Margin  
       5      35      36    58.1    22.1   61.4%  
       8      17      18    27.2     9.2   51.1%  
      12      17      18    27.2     9.2   51.1%  
      13      23      24    34.4    10.4   43.3%  
       9      23      24    33.4     9.4   39.2%  
       1      55      56    74.6    18.6   33.2%  
       2      20      21    27.2     6.2   29.5%  
      10      23      24    25.5     1.5    6.3%  
       4      38      39    37.9    -1.1   -2.8%  
       6      38      39    37.9    -1.1   -2.8%  
      11      23      24    23.0    -1.0   -4.2%  
       3      40      41    27.2   -13.8  -33.7%  
       7      40      41    27.2   -13.8  -33.7%  
```
I had planned to use a greedy algorithm to pick the most profitable lots until I ran out of money, but actually I can afford to be competitive on all marginally profitable lots. My final bids are as follows. (* indicates I do not expect to win this lot.) I expect to spend 221sp on 8 lots and earn about 308sp from their sale.

Lot #1: 56sp
Lot #2: 21sp
Lot #3: 27sp*
Lot #4: 24sp*
Lot #5: 36sp
Lot #6: 24sp*
Lot #7: 27sp*
Lot #8: 18sp
Lot #9: 24sp
Lot #10: 24sp
Lot #11: 20sp*
Lot #12: 18sp
Lot #13: 24sp