In order for FAI to win pre-WBE, FAI has to get more resources than AGI (e.g., more, smarter researchers, computing power), but because FAI is much harder than AGI, it needs a large advantage. The “race for WBE” is better because it’s a fairer one and you may only need to win by a small margin.
If FAI is much harder, WBE race has more potential for winning than pre-WBE race, but still low probability (getting more resources than all AI efforts is unlikely, and by the time the WBE race even begins, a lot is already lost).
Also, if someone (who isn’t necessarily an FAI group to start with) dominates WBE, they have no strong reason to immediately aim for AGI. What does it buy them that they don’t already have? They can take the (subjective) time to think over the situation, and perhaps decide that FAI would be the best way to move forward.
No strong reason but natural stupidity. This argues for developing enough theory pre-WBE to make deliberate delay in developing AGI respectable/likely to get traction.
If FAI is much harder, WBE race has more potential for winning than pre-WBE race, but still low probability (getting more resources than all AI efforts is unlikely, and by the time the WBE race even begins, a lot is already lost).
No strong reason but natural stupidity. This argues for developing enough theory pre-WBE to make deliberate delay in developing AGI respectable/likely to get traction.