I think that the difference between evaluating 2+2 and assigning probabilities (and the reason for the large amount of disagreement) is that 2+2 is a statement in a formal language, whereas what kind of anthropic principle to accept/how to interpret probability is a philosophical one.
Don’t be fooled by the simple Bayes’ theorem calculations—they are not the hard part of this question.
A philosophical question, as opposed to a formal one, is a question that hasn’t been properly understood yet. It is a case of ignorance in the mind, not a case of fuzzy territory.
I think that the difference between evaluating 2+2 and assigning probabilities (and the reason for the large amount of disagreement) is that 2+2 is a statement in a formal language, whereas what kind of anthropic principle to accept/how to interpret probability is a philosophical one.
Don’t be fooled by the simple Bayes’ theorem calculations—they are not the hard part of this question.
So the difficult question here is which probability space to set up, not how to compute conditional probabilities given that probability space.
(Posted as an antidote to misinterpretation of your comment I committed a moment before.)
A philosophical question, as opposed to a formal one, is a question that hasn’t been properly understood yet. It is a case of ignorance in the mind, not a case of fuzzy territory.