You don’t seem to understand the concept of Bayesian probability. Subjective probability is not estimation of “real probability”, there is no “real probability”. When you revise subjective probability, it’s not because you found out how to approximate “real probability” better, it’s because you are following the logic of subjective probability.
You don’t seem to understand the concept of Bayesian probability.
Really? Someone who’s been posting around these parts for years, and your best hypothesis is “doesn’t understand Bayesian probability”? How would you rank it compared to “Someone hijacked your Lw account” or “I’m not understanding you” or “You said something that would have made sense except for a fairly improbable typo”?
Someone who’s been posting around these parts for years, and your best hypothesis is “doesn’t understand Bayesian probability”?
This seems a reasonable hypothesis specifically because it’s Tim Tyler. It would be much less probable for most other old-timers (another salient exception that comes to mind is Phil Goetz, though I don’t remember what he understands about probability in particular).
You seem to have to misattribute the phrase “real probability” to me in order to make this claim. What I actually said was “the probability that an expert might use”.
I recommend you exercise caution with those quote marks when attributing silly positions to me: some people might be misled into thinking you were actually quoting me—rather than attacking some nonsense of your own creation.
You don’t seem to understand the concept of Bayesian probability. Subjective probability is not estimation of “real probability”, there is no “real probability”. When you revise subjective probability, it’s not because you found out how to approximate “real probability” better, it’s because you are following the logic of subjective probability.
Really? Someone who’s been posting around these parts for years, and your best hypothesis is “doesn’t understand Bayesian probability”? How would you rank it compared to “Someone hijacked your Lw account” or “I’m not understanding you” or “You said something that would have made sense except for a fairly improbable typo”?
This seems a reasonable hypothesis specifically because it’s Tim Tyler. It would be much less probable for most other old-timers (another salient exception that comes to mind is Phil Goetz, though I don’t remember what he understands about probability in particular).
You seem to have to misattribute the phrase “real probability” to me in order to make this claim. What I actually said was “the probability that an expert might use”.
I recommend you exercise caution with those quote marks when attributing silly positions to me: some people might be misled into thinking you were actually quoting me—rather than attacking some nonsense of your own creation.