The absent-minded driveris essentially the same problem, but it’s easier to analyze because explicit payoff specification prompts you to estimate expected value of possible strategies. In estimating those strategies, we use the same probability model that would say “1/2” in the Beauty problem.
The absent-minded driver is essentially the same problem, but it’s easier to analyze because explicit payoff specification prompts you to estimate expected value of possible strategies. In estimating those strategies, we use the same probability model that would say “1/2” in the Beauty problem.