Let us not sacrifice effectiveness of our concepts in order to make them mathematically elegant. If reality gives you problems where you win by reasoning anthropically, but ordinary probability theory is not up to the job of facilitating, then invent UDT and use that instead.
It’s hard to make a sensible notion of probability out of “fraction of waking moments”.
If reality gives you problems where you win by reasoning anthropically, but ordinary probability theory is not up to the job of facilitating, then invent UDT and use that instead.
The winning thing might be better than the probability thing, but it won’t be a probability thing just because it’s winning. Also, UDT weakly relies on the same framework of expected utility and probability spaces, defined exactly as I discuss them in the comments to this post.
Let us not sacrifice effectiveness of our concepts in order to make them mathematically elegant. If reality gives you problems where you win by reasoning anthropically, but ordinary probability theory is not up to the job of facilitating, then invent UDT and use that instead.
The winning thing might be better than the probability thing, but it won’t be a probability thing just because it’s winning. Also, UDT weakly relies on the same framework of expected utility and probability spaces, defined exactly as I discuss them in the comments to this post.