There’s a ton of stuff here so I can’t take time to properly respond to it all, but I did want to note (I’ve talked about this before) my intuition pump around the data suppression question, and why I think it’s hugely unlikely there are much more common serious side effects.
Which is that there are tons of people both pro and anti vaccine who are actively on the prowl for such effects. If we catch even a whiff of anything, no matter how statistically irrelevant, it endangers the ability to use the vaccines at all—see J&J, and see the Moderna suspensions, over basically nothing in both cases. Thus, the Responsible Authorities are keeping eyes peeled looking for non-existent problems, and the anti-vax crowd is of course looking for any problems, and reporters know it’s a good story, and a lot of people would report hearing about such things especially if they knew multiple cases, etc etc.
It’s not that I trust it because the people in charge are saying so, it’s because my model says if the problems existed we would know. Rogan is the first I’ve heard who reported a personal pattern or other pattern of serious (not short term you feel bad) symptoms from the vaccines. E.g. I don’t know of anyone I know who knows anyone who had a non-short-term side effect of vaccination (or even thinks they did), whereas my personal trainer from pre-Covid is in terrible long term condition from Long Covid, etc. And the only other sources claiming to know such folks in multiples are, at best, ‘less credible than Rogan.’
Basically, when you have a huge anti-vax (not merely anti-mandate) faction, highly motivated to find things, you need to compare what evidence is found to what evidence you expect. And from Rogan’s particular perspective, even if this is mostly a timing coincidence, that evidence looks suspicious, but from yours and mine, it doesn’t (unless you have personal data I don’t know, if I missed it I apologize).
There’s a ton of stuff here so I can’t take time to properly respond to it all, but I did want to note (I’ve talked about this before) my intuition pump around the data suppression question, and why I think it’s hugely unlikely there are much more common serious side effects.
Which is that there are tons of people both pro and anti vaccine who are actively on the prowl for such effects. If we catch even a whiff of anything, no matter how statistically irrelevant, it endangers the ability to use the vaccines at all—see J&J, and see the Moderna suspensions, over basically nothing in both cases. Thus, the Responsible Authorities are keeping eyes peeled looking for non-existent problems, and the anti-vax crowd is of course looking for any problems, and reporters know it’s a good story, and a lot of people would report hearing about such things especially if they knew multiple cases, etc etc.
It’s not that I trust it because the people in charge are saying so, it’s because my model says if the problems existed we would know. Rogan is the first I’ve heard who reported a personal pattern or other pattern of serious (not short term you feel bad) symptoms from the vaccines. E.g. I don’t know of anyone I know who knows anyone who had a non-short-term side effect of vaccination (or even thinks they did), whereas my personal trainer from pre-Covid is in terrible long term condition from Long Covid, etc. And the only other sources claiming to know such folks in multiples are, at best, ‘less credible than Rogan.’
Basically, when you have a huge anti-vax (not merely anti-mandate) faction, highly motivated to find things, you need to compare what evidence is found to what evidence you expect. And from Rogan’s particular perspective, even if this is mostly a timing coincidence, that evidence looks suspicious, but from yours and mine, it doesn’t (unless you have personal data I don’t know, if I missed it I apologize).