What’s the chance that the whole medical research apparatus in the US is corrupt and the vaccine numbers are off? That’s the bit that might be underlying Rogan’s model which he’s not spelling out, that leads to “I don’t trust statistics”
Is it 1% ? 10%? 20%? 90%? If so the unkown-unkowns of a vaccine become very high.
Given that it’s widely accepted both Russia and China have faked their data, given that he knows people which had issues that were not reported, given previous failures of the health system during the pandemic.
It seems to me that Joe (and most Americans) are irrational for even considering getting vaccinated.
I for one am to deep down into “assume science in the west is generally not corrupt” rabbit hole, if a large % of data in hard science studies were faked my whole world would collapse so I might as well bet on that, most people here are in that camp, but Joe isn’t.
Also Joe isn’t able to decouple “public policy” from “scientific consensus”, neither are most people, even I or most people here can’t. Like, I have a few good heuristics like “If it’s a simple statistical analysis and the author shared the data with a bunch of people that replicated and n is very high then it’s ok” (ala vaccine studies), or “if it’s a metaanalysis from cochren then I trust it”, but those are less than rational heuristics and I have no idea how an MMA fighter could reach them or why he’d care.
On the whole Joe’s response to the pandemic was on-point, I’d be surprised if he’ll change his mind past “a lot of people think otherwise so let’s meet in the middle”. Because that’s the rational view based on his (rather dumb and scientifically illiterate) PoV.
What’s the chance that the whole medical research apparatus in the US is corrupt and the vaccine numbers are off? That’s the bit that might be underlying Rogan’s model which he’s not spelling out, that leads to “I don’t trust statistics”
Is it 1% ? 10%? 20%? 90%? If so the unkown-unkowns of a vaccine become very high.
Given that it’s widely accepted both Russia and China have faked their data, given that he knows people which had issues that were not reported, given previous failures of the health system during the pandemic.
It seems to me that Joe (and most Americans) are irrational for even considering getting vaccinated.
I for one am to deep down into “assume science in the west is generally not corrupt” rabbit hole, if a large % of data in hard science studies were faked my whole world would collapse so I might as well bet on that, most people here are in that camp, but Joe isn’t.
Also Joe isn’t able to decouple “public policy” from “scientific consensus”, neither are most people, even I or most people here can’t. Like, I have a few good heuristics like “If it’s a simple statistical analysis and the author shared the data with a bunch of people that replicated and n is very high then it’s ok” (ala vaccine studies), or “if it’s a metaanalysis from cochren then I trust it”, but those are less than rational heuristics and I have no idea how an MMA fighter could reach them or why he’d care.
On the whole Joe’s response to the pandemic was on-point, I’d be surprised if he’ll change his mind past “a lot of people think otherwise so let’s meet in the middle”. Because that’s the rational view based on his (rather dumb and scientifically illiterate) PoV.
Right. It’s hard to have a rational argument without an agreed upon set of facts.