Thank you for writing this up! This topic seems extremely important and I strongly agree with the core arguments here.
I propose the following addition to the list of things we care about when it comes to takeoff dynamics, or when it comes to defining slow(er) takeoff:
Foreseeability: No one creates an AI with a transformative capability X at a time when most actors (weighted by influence) believe it is very unlikely that an AI with capability X will be created within a year.
Perhaps this should replace (or be merged with) the “warning shots” entry in the list. (As an aside, I think the term “warning shot” doesn’t fit, because the original term refers to an action that is carried out for the purpose of communicating a threat.)
Thanks! Good point about “warning shot” having the wrong connotations. And I like your foreseeability suggestion. I wonder if I can merge it with something. It seems similar to warning shots and risk awareness. Maybe I should just have a general category for “How surprised are the relevant actors when things like AGI, alignment failures, etc. start happening.”
Thank you for writing this up! This topic seems extremely important and I strongly agree with the core arguments here.
I propose the following addition to the list of things we care about when it comes to takeoff dynamics, or when it comes to defining slow(er) takeoff:
Foreseeability: No one creates an AI with a transformative capability X at a time when most actors (weighted by influence) believe it is very unlikely that an AI with capability X will be created within a year.
Perhaps this should replace (or be merged with) the “warning shots” entry in the list. (As an aside, I think the term “warning shot” doesn’t fit, because the original term refers to an action that is carried out for the purpose of communicating a threat.)
Thanks! Good point about “warning shot” having the wrong connotations. And I like your foreseeability suggestion. I wonder if I can merge it with something. It seems similar to warning shots and risk awareness. Maybe I should just have a general category for “How surprised are the relevant actors when things like AGI, alignment failures, etc. start happening.”