To be clear, I think a large update against neuralese is that this seems like the sort of thing that would be pretty likely to leak and I’m not aware of any public leaks. Probably this should yield more like 10% likely. I didn’t think very carefully about the 25%.
The interaction with users used for o1 (where the AI thinks for a while prior to sending a response) is consistent with neuralese.
RL adding substantial additional capabilities means there might be enough RL for this to work.
o3 is a substantial leap over o1 seemingly.
To be clear, I think a large update against neuralese is that this seems like the sort of thing that would be pretty likely to leak and I’m not aware of any public leaks. Probably this should yield more like 10% likely. I didn’t think very carefully about the 25%.
Makes sense. Perhaps we’ll know more when o3 is released. If the model doesn’t offer a summary of CoT it makes neuralese more likely.