Ah, I shouldn’t have said “myself,” sorry. Got carried away there. :( I first got involved in all this stuff about ten years ago when I read LW, Bostrom, etc. and found myself convinced. I said so to people around me, but I didn’t post about it online.
I disagree that the bets turned out to be mostly wrong, and that this suggests poor epistemics (though it does suggest poor models of AGI, and to a lesser extent, models of alignment). Thanks for the link though, I’ll ponder it for a bit.
Ah, I shouldn’t have said “myself,” sorry. Got carried away there. :( I first got involved in all this stuff about ten years ago when I read LW, Bostrom, etc. and found myself convinced. I said so to people around me, but I didn’t post about it online.
I disagree that the bets turned out to be mostly wrong, and that this suggests poor epistemics (though it does suggest poor models of AGI, and to a lesser extent, models of alignment). Thanks for the link though, I’ll ponder it for a bit.