I enjoy reading your posts, but I skip over the 300-word blocks of text like the following. Without new paragraphs or white space, it’s too dense for me to want to read them.
Thinking about AI impacts down the line without robotics seems to me like thinking about the steam engine without railroads, or computers without spreadsheets. You can talk about that if you want, but it’s not the question we should be asking. And even then, I expect more – for example I asked Claude about automating 80% of non-physical tasks, and it estimated about 5.5% additional GDP growth per year. Another way of thinking about Dean Ball’s growth estimate is that in 20 years of having access to this, that would roughly turn Portugal into the Netherlands, or China into Russia. Does that seem plausible? If you make a sufficient number of the pessimistic objections on top of each other, where we stall out before ASI and have widespread diffusion bottlenecks and robotics proves mostly unsolvable without ASI, I suppose you could get to 2% a year scenario. But I certainly wouldn’t call that wildly optimistic. I will reiterate my position that various forms of ‘intelligence only goes so far’ are almost entirely a Skill Issue, certainly over a decade-long time horizon and at the margins discussed here, amounting to Intelligence Denialism. The ASI cuts through everything. And yes, physical actions take non-zero time, but that’s being taken into account, future automated processes can go remarkably quickly even in the physical realm, and a lot of claims of ‘you can only know [X] by running a physical experiment’ are very wrong, again a Skill Issue. On the decreasing marginal value of goods, I think this is very much a ‘dreamed of in your philosophy’ issue, or perhaps it is definitional. I very much doubt that the physical limits kick in that close to where we are now, even if in important senses our basic human needs are already being met.
I suspect an issue with the RSS cross-posting feature. I think you may used the “Resync RSS” button (possibly to sync an unrelated edit), and that may have fixed it? The logs I’m looking at are consistent with that being what happened.
Zvi’s post is imported, so it’s stored a little differently than normal posts. Here’s two copies I made stored differently (1, 2), I’d appreciate you letting me know if either of these look correct on mobile.
(Currently it looks fine on my iPhone, are you on an Android?)
I enjoy reading your posts, but I skip over the 300-word blocks of text like the following. Without new paragraphs or white space, it’s too dense for me to want to read them.
Something weird is going on, I see plenty of paragraph breaks there.
I suspect an issue with the RSS cross-posting feature. I think you may used the “Resync RSS” button (possibly to sync an unrelated edit), and that may have fixed it? The logs I’m looking at are consistent with that being what happened.
Same, here’s a screenshot. Perhaps Molony is using a third-party web viewer?
On mobile I see no paragraph breaks, on PC I see them.
Edited to add what it looks like on mobile:
Thanks!
Zvi’s post is imported, so it’s stored a little differently than normal posts. Here’s two copies I made stored differently (1, 2), I’d appreciate you letting me know if either of these look correct on mobile.
(Currently it looks fine on my iPhone, are you on an Android?)
...to my confusion, not only do both of those look fine to me on mobile, the original post now also looks fine.
(Yes, I am on Android.)
No, I wasn’t using a third-party. I was viewing it on PC.
It looks normal today and I’m seeing paragraph breaks now.