What I would really like to see is cost of living plummet to 0. Then cost of thriving plummet to 0. Which would also cause GDP to plummet. However, this is only a problem in practical terms if the forces of automation require money to keep running, rather than, say, a benevolent ASI taking care of humanity as a personal hobby.
One way or another, though, AGI is going to have an impact on this world of a magnitude equivalent to something like a 30% growth in GWP per year at least. This includes all life getting wiped out, of course.
Maybe we need a standard metric for the rate of unrecognizability/incomprehensibility of the world and talk about how AGI will accelerate this. Like how much a person accustomed to life in 1500 would have to adjust to fit in to the world of 2000. A standard shock level (SSL), if you will.
The shock level of 2000 relative to 1500 may end up describing the shock level of 2040 relative to 2020, assuming AGI has saturated the global economy by then. The time it takes for the world to become unrecognizable (again and again) will shrink over time as intelligence grows, whether manifested as GDP growth, GDP collapse, or paperclipping. If ordinary people understood that at least, you might get more push for investment into alignment research or for stricter regulations.
What I would really like to see is cost of living plummet to 0. Then cost of thriving plummet to 0. Which would also cause GDP to plummet. However, this is only a problem in practical terms if the forces of automation require money to keep running, rather than, say, a benevolent ASI taking care of humanity as a personal hobby.
One way or another, though, AGI is going to have an impact on this world of a magnitude equivalent to something like a 30% growth in GWP per year at least. This includes all life getting wiped out, of course.
Maybe we need a standard metric for the rate of unrecognizability/incomprehensibility of the world and talk about how AGI will accelerate this. Like how much a person accustomed to life in 1500 would have to adjust to fit in to the world of 2000. A standard shock level (SSL), if you will.
The shock level of 2000 relative to 1500 may end up describing the shock level of 2040 relative to 2020, assuming AGI has saturated the global economy by then. The time it takes for the world to become unrecognizable (again and again) will shrink over time as intelligence grows, whether manifested as GDP growth, GDP collapse, or paperclipping. If ordinary people understood that at least, you might get more push for investment into alignment research or for stricter regulations.
Yeah! GDP is possibly almost pathologically conservative.
Some relevant pieces for sheer transformation might be:
raw material extraction
energy capture and consumption
Importantly, there’s a crux here I think whether any autonomous self-replicating sub-economies go boom or whether demand remains (Baumol-style) determined by human consumption.
On the more ‘impact on life’ side, we could also ask about:
cost of living (nice one Jon)
(other things like cost of raising a child, cost of travel, …)
(perhaps relativised to median income or something)