“Given all of this, I think that if you’re smart and hard working, you should have at least an 80-90% chance at succeeding at a startup.”
Your method is bad- you have come up with some imaginary numbers and not addressed the obvious difference with reality, except with the qualifier that you mean people who are “smart & hardworking”.
Surprisingly, when I went looking, you might be partially correct: at least for people who really are smart and hardworking and for certain values of “success”. To look at the Ycombinator list—the number of “failures” or dead companies is very low and this probably provides a decent filter in that they are as experienced as anyone in identifying people who are smart and hardworking in the ways relevant for a startup.
The huge caveat is of course that nearly all startups don’t get funded by ycombinator and “not dead yet” is not comparable to “success”.
Making up imaginary numbers and then coming up with a rationalisation for those numbers is still a horrible way of making an argument though. Worse, you haven’t explained why your made-up number is so different from the commonly quoted made up number that 90% of startups fail.
Your method is bad- you have come up with some imaginary numbers and not addressed the obvious difference with reality, except with the qualifier that you mean people who are “smart & hardworking”.
No, I’m just trying to take an inside view. I think the main reason why success rates aren’t as high as they should be is because of my very first bullet point of people being unable to think specifically about benefits.
“Given all of this, I think that if you’re smart and hard working, you should have at least an 80-90% chance at succeeding at a startup.”
Your method is bad- you have come up with some imaginary numbers and not addressed the obvious difference with reality, except with the qualifier that you mean people who are “smart & hardworking”.
Surprisingly, when I went looking, you might be partially correct: at least for people who really are smart and hardworking and for certain values of “success”. To look at the Ycombinator list—the number of “failures” or dead companies is very low and this probably provides a decent filter in that they are as experienced as anyone in identifying people who are smart and hardworking in the ways relevant for a startup.
The huge caveat is of course that nearly all startups don’t get funded by ycombinator and “not dead yet” is not comparable to “success”.
Making up imaginary numbers and then coming up with a rationalisation for those numbers is still a horrible way of making an argument though. Worse, you haven’t explained why your made-up number is so different from the commonly quoted made up number that 90% of startups fail.
No, I’m just trying to take an inside view. I think the main reason why success rates aren’t as high as they should be is because of my very first bullet point of people being unable to think specifically about benefits.