Do you mean “when can we distinguish exponential from logistical curve”? I dunno, but I do know that many things which look exponential turn out to slow down after a finite (and small) number of doublings.
No I mean what I typed. Try my toy model, factories driven by AGI expanding across the earth or Moon. A logistical growth curve explicitly applies a penalty that scales with scale. When do you think this matters and by how much?
If say at lunar 50 percent the penalty is 10 percent, you have a case of basically exponential growth.
Do you mean “when can we distinguish exponential from logistical curve”? I dunno, but I do know that many things which look exponential turn out to slow down after a finite (and small) number of doublings.
No I mean what I typed. Try my toy model, factories driven by AGI expanding across the earth or Moon. A logistical growth curve explicitly applies a penalty that scales with scale. When do you think this matters and by how much?
If say at lunar 50 percent the penalty is 10 percent, you have a case of basically exponential growth.