Thank you a lot for this. I think this or @Thomas Kwas comment would make an excellent original-sequences-style post—it doesn’t need to be long, but just going through an example and talking about the assumptions would be really valuable for applied rationality.
After all, it’s about how much one should expect ones beliefs to vary, which is pretty important.
Thank you a lot for this. I think this or @Thomas Kwas comment would make an excellent original-sequences-style post—it doesn’t need to be long, but just going through an example and talking about the assumptions would be really valuable for applied rationality.
After all, it’s about how much one should expect ones beliefs to vary, which is pretty important.