What’s your numerical probability estimate that, assuming no one puts much work into stopping it, Unfriendly AI will seriously damage or destroy human civilization in the next few centuries?
Mine is...hmm...I don’t know. Maybe 50%? I’m not sure. I do know that if there were an asteroid nearby with the same probability of impacting Earth, I’d be running up to people and shaking them and shouting “WHY AREN’T WE BUILDING MORE ASTEROID DEFLECTORS?! WHAT’S WRONG WITH YOU? PEOPLE!” I don’t know if I believe in unconditional moral imperatives, but if there were a 50% chance of an asteroid striking Earth soon, or even a 10% chance, and no one was doing anything about it, I would at least feel an imperative conditional on some of my other beliefs to try to help stop it.
So maybe part of what the Sequences did for me was help calibrate my brain well enough so that I noticed the similarity between the asteroid and the AI case.
The remaining sane part seems to be a matter of personal psychology. My undergrad philosophy prof once told a story of how a classmate of hers had to be committed to an institution after reading a book on nihilism: he just started doubting everything and went mad. My prof read the same book on nihilism, thought it made some interesting arguments that she couldn’t immediately refute, went back to her everyday life, and a few years later reconsidered it and found some possible refutations.
I have always sympathized more with my professor’s point of view: I can read arguments which if taken seriously would be nightmarish or imply total doubt, admit the arguments seem plausible, and then go back to making pizza or doing homework or whatever. I’m not sure what the difference is between people like myself and my professor, and people like you and my professor’s classmate. Maybe you’re more rational, deep down? Or maybe you’re just naturally depressed and anxious, and your brain latches onto this as an excuse? I don’t know. In any case, I don’t at all think of being able to resist terrifying implications as a rationalist skill and I’m not sure what I would do in your position.
(in my own case, I have pretty much decided to live a normal life but give a reasonable amount of what I make to SIAI and associated charities, probably, volunteer for them if they need it, and leave it at that. Are the algorithms that produced this plan optimal? No. Are they a heck of a lot better than going insane and resisting the idea of friendly AI with all my might because if I accepted it I would have to go insane and give away all my money? Yes.)
Another problem is that I am not really altruistic. I’d love to see everybody happy. But that’s it. But then I also don’t really care about myself that much. I only care if I might suffer, but not about being dead. That’s what makes the cryonics question pretty easy for me. I just don’t care enough.
...I would describe this as being altruistic; also, I share your intuitions about death and cryonics.
There are many incredible smart people who hold really absurd ideas.
Okay, point. I guess I got the impression Eliezer was both smart and rational; that he was smart in exactly the way that ought to prevent him from holding absurd ideas. This is an intuition, so I can’t really justify it.
If you mean that they are good in convincing you of risks from AI, then I also ask you how sure you are that they are not only convincing but actually factually right? Do you believe that you have the expertise that is necessary to discern a good argument about artificial intelligence from one that is not even wrong?
This seems like a fully general counterargument. “Sure, the evidence for evolution sounds convincing; but how do you know it’s actually true and you aren’t just being tricked?”
Just one last question if you allow. What are you doing against risks from AI? Do you pursue a carrier where you can earn a lot of money to contribute it to SIAI?
I’m pursuing a career as a doctor. Despite a recent major setback, I’m still hoping to get there within a year or so. After that, yeah, I do intend to donate a lot to SIAI—albeit, as I said before, I don’t claim I’ll be anywhere near perfect.
Maybe 50%? I’m not sure. I do know that if there were an asteroid nearby with the same probability of impacting Earth, I’d be running up to people and shaking them and shouting “WHY AREN’T WE BUILDING MORE ASTEROID DEFLECTORS?! WHAT’S WRONG WITH YOU? PEOPLE!”
That would be more than enough to devote a big chunk of the world’s resources on friendly AI research, given the associated utility. But you can’t just make up completely unfounded conjectures, then claim that we don’t have evidence either way (50% chance) but that the utility associated with a negative outcome is huge and we should therefore take it seriously. Because that reasoning will ultimately make you privilege random high-utility outcomes over theories based on empirical evidence.
This seems like a fully general counterargument. “Sure, the evidence for evolution sounds convincing; but how do you know it’s actually true and you aren’t just being tricked?”
You can’t really compare that. The arguments for evolution are pretty easy to understand and the evidence is overwhelming. But Eliezer Yudkowsky could tell me anything about AI and I would have no way to tell if he was right or not even wrong.
After that, yeah, I do intend to donate a lot to SIAI—albeit, as I said before, I don’t claim I’ll be anywhere near perfect.
I see. That makes me take you much more seriously.
But Eliezer Yudkowsky could tell me anything about AI and I would have no way to tell if he was right or not even wrong.
You know, one upside of logic is that, if someone tells you proposition x is true, gives you the data, and shows their steps of reasoning, you can tell whether they’re lying or not. I’m not a hundred percent onboard with Yudkowsky’s AI risk views, but I can at least tell that his line of reasoning is correct as far as it goes. He may be making some unjustified assumptions about AI architecture, but he’s not wrong about there being a threat. If he’s making a mistake of logic, it’s not one I can find. A big, big chunk of mindspace is hostile-by-default.
What’s your numerical probability estimate that, assuming no one puts much work into stopping it, Unfriendly AI will seriously damage or destroy human civilization in the next few centuries?
Mine is...hmm...I don’t know. Maybe 50%? I’m not sure. I do know that if there were an asteroid nearby with the same probability of impacting Earth, I’d be running up to people and shaking them and shouting “WHY AREN’T WE BUILDING MORE ASTEROID DEFLECTORS?! WHAT’S WRONG WITH YOU? PEOPLE!” I don’t know if I believe in unconditional moral imperatives, but if there were a 50% chance of an asteroid striking Earth soon, or even a 10% chance, and no one was doing anything about it, I would at least feel an imperative conditional on some of my other beliefs to try to help stop it.
So maybe part of what the Sequences did for me was help calibrate my brain well enough so that I noticed the similarity between the asteroid and the AI case.
The remaining sane part seems to be a matter of personal psychology. My undergrad philosophy prof once told a story of how a classmate of hers had to be committed to an institution after reading a book on nihilism: he just started doubting everything and went mad. My prof read the same book on nihilism, thought it made some interesting arguments that she couldn’t immediately refute, went back to her everyday life, and a few years later reconsidered it and found some possible refutations.
I have always sympathized more with my professor’s point of view: I can read arguments which if taken seriously would be nightmarish or imply total doubt, admit the arguments seem plausible, and then go back to making pizza or doing homework or whatever. I’m not sure what the difference is between people like myself and my professor, and people like you and my professor’s classmate. Maybe you’re more rational, deep down? Or maybe you’re just naturally depressed and anxious, and your brain latches onto this as an excuse? I don’t know. In any case, I don’t at all think of being able to resist terrifying implications as a rationalist skill and I’m not sure what I would do in your position.
(in my own case, I have pretty much decided to live a normal life but give a reasonable amount of what I make to SIAI and associated charities, probably, volunteer for them if they need it, and leave it at that. Are the algorithms that produced this plan optimal? No. Are they a heck of a lot better than going insane and resisting the idea of friendly AI with all my might because if I accepted it I would have to go insane and give away all my money? Yes.)
...I would describe this as being altruistic; also, I share your intuitions about death and cryonics.
Okay, point. I guess I got the impression Eliezer was both smart and rational; that he was smart in exactly the way that ought to prevent him from holding absurd ideas. This is an intuition, so I can’t really justify it.
This seems like a fully general counterargument. “Sure, the evidence for evolution sounds convincing; but how do you know it’s actually true and you aren’t just being tricked?”
I’m pursuing a career as a doctor. Despite a recent major setback, I’m still hoping to get there within a year or so. After that, yeah, I do intend to donate a lot to SIAI—albeit, as I said before, I don’t claim I’ll be anywhere near perfect.
That would be more than enough to devote a big chunk of the world’s resources on friendly AI research, given the associated utility. But you can’t just make up completely unfounded conjectures, then claim that we don’t have evidence either way (50% chance) but that the utility associated with a negative outcome is huge and we should therefore take it seriously. Because that reasoning will ultimately make you privilege random high-utility outcomes over theories based on empirical evidence.
You can’t really compare that. The arguments for evolution are pretty easy to understand and the evidence is overwhelming. But Eliezer Yudkowsky could tell me anything about AI and I would have no way to tell if he was right or not even wrong.
I see. That makes me take you much more seriously.
You know, one upside of logic is that, if someone tells you proposition x is true, gives you the data, and shows their steps of reasoning, you can tell whether they’re lying or not. I’m not a hundred percent onboard with Yudkowsky’s AI risk views, but I can at least tell that his line of reasoning is correct as far as it goes. He may be making some unjustified assumptions about AI architecture, but he’s not wrong about there being a threat. If he’s making a mistake of logic, it’s not one I can find. A big, big chunk of mindspace is hostile-by-default.