I was just thinking about the phrase “change your mind”. It kind of implies that there is some switch that is flipped, which implies that things are binary (I believe X vs I don’t believe X). That is incorrect[1] of course. Probability is in the mind, it is a spectrum, and you update incrementally.
Well, to play devils advocate, I guess you can call 50% the “switch”. If you go from 51% to 49% it’s going from “I believe X” to “I don’t believe X”. Maybe not though. Depends on what “believe” means. Maybe “believe” moreso means some sort of high probability estimate of it being true, like 80%+.
How does “change” imply “flip”? A thermometer going up a degree undergoes a change. A mind that updates the credence of a belief from X to Y undergoes a change as well.
Yeah that’s a fair question/point. I was thinking about that as well. I think I just get the impression that, thinking about common usage, in the context of “change your mind” people usually mean some sort of “flip”. Not everyone though, some people might just mean “update”.
Against “change your mind”
I was just thinking about the phrase “change your mind”. It kind of implies that there is some switch that is flipped, which implies that things are binary (I believe X vs I don’t believe X). That is incorrect[1] of course. Probability is in the mind, it is a spectrum, and you update incrementally.
Well, to play devils advocate, I guess you can call 50% the “switch”. If you go from 51% to 49% it’s going from “I believe X” to “I don’t believe X”. Maybe not though. Depends on what “believe” means. Maybe “believe” moreso means some sort of high probability estimate of it being true, like 80%+.
How does “change” imply “flip”? A thermometer going up a degree undergoes a change. A mind that updates the credence of a belief from X to Y undergoes a change as well.
Yeah that’s a fair question/point. I was thinking about that as well. I think I just get the impression that, thinking about common usage, in the context of “change your mind” people usually mean some sort of “flip”. Not everyone though, some people might just mean “update”.