A marginal choice of a spherical researcher without specific preferences should be based on identifying relatively neglected directions
Inside-view convincingness of these directions still has to be weighted in.
I mean directions neglected relative to estimated good distribution of global effort. If I estimate good distribution of effort towards searching The Silmarillion for insights relevant to mechanistic interpretability to be zero, then it’s not a relatively neglected direction.
A choice of an actual researcher with specific preferences should give weight to those preferences
if you’re looking at a bunch of plausible directions, you can pick between them not solely based on your comparative advantages
Sure, by “give weight” I mean take into account, not take as the sole basis for a decision. The other major factor is that relative neglectedness I mentioned (in the sense I hopefully now clarified).
I mean directions neglected relative to estimated good distribution of global effort. If I estimate good distribution of effort towards searching The Silmarillion for insights relevant to mechanistic interpretability to be zero, then it’s not a relatively neglected direction.
Sure, by “give weight” I mean take into account, not take as the sole basis for a decision. The other major factor is that relative neglectedness I mentioned (in the sense I hopefully now clarified).