This seems like a VERY important point to Double Crux on! I’m excited to see it come up.
Hmm… if you genuinely meant to say “Have you stopped to consider to what extent my opinion counts as evidence or not, including possibly deciding that it’s neutral or anti-evidence?” then I just want to say “No.” and I claim this is the correct thing to do. I genuinely think that social bayes/aumanning is a bad idea. To capture what I expect is a 4,000-word post in a catchy sentence: If I don’t understand something, just because Conor believes it’s true, doesn’t cause me to understand it any better.
Would love to read about a Double Crux on this point. (Perhaps you two could email back and forth and then compile the resulting text, with some minor edits, and then publish on LW2?)
Personally, I agree with Ben Pace, and the fact that it ‘might be able to be done right’ is not a crux. But I could see changing my mind.
I think I rate “strength of confidence in a person” low when trying to decide whether to really engage in a model. Other factors like “tractibility of a problem area to modelling” or “importance of problem area” are much more important. “Ease of engagement” is probably why I engaged with the mtg post as much as I did, but my low expectation in the problem areas tractibility means I probably won’t try it out for very long.
Loren ipsum
This seems like a VERY important point to Double Crux on! I’m excited to see it come up.
Would love to read about a Double Crux on this point. (Perhaps you two could email back and forth and then compile the resulting text, with some minor edits, and then publish on LW2?)
Personally, I agree with Ben Pace, and the fact that it ‘might be able to be done right’ is not a crux. But I could see changing my mind.
Loren ipsum
I’m still into the idea of reading a transcript after-the-fact. Or at least a summary.
Do you believe the situation above RE: the MTG Color Wheel is an example of a time “when you have to take action and can’t figure it out yourself”?
Loren ipsum
I think I rate “strength of confidence in a person” low when trying to decide whether to really engage in a model. Other factors like “tractibility of a problem area to modelling” or “importance of problem area” are much more important. “Ease of engagement” is probably why I engaged with the mtg post as much as I did, but my low expectation in the problem areas tractibility means I probably won’t try it out for very long.