I’m more interested in schemes to bet reputation/status or labor.
I agree that reputation (I’d say specifically credibility) is the important thing to wager, but I think any public bet implicitly does that.
If, in 2030, there are still humans on Earth’s surface, then the takeaway is “AI x-risk proponent Yudkowsky proved wrong in bet”, and Yudkowsky loses credibility. (See Ehrlich’s famous bet for an example of this pattern.) The upside is raising concern about AI x-risk in the present (2022).
This is a good trade-off if you think increasing concern about AI x-risk in 2022-2029 is worth decreasing concern about AI x-risk in 2030+. Of course, if AGI turns out to be invented before 2030, the trade-off seems good. In the event that it’s not, the trade-off seems bad.
Well, in that case I’ll have you know that about two years ago I made a bet for $1000 with Tobias Baumann. Resolution date was also 2030. Can send more details if you like.
And in general if anyone wants to send me money now, I’ll promise to pay you back with interest in 2030. But please only do this if it doesn’t create significant administrative overhead for me… in fact come to think of it this probably would, I don’t see how this is worth it for me… hmm..
Anyone who would accord me higher status and respect if they saw me making such bets should totally make such bets with me. Unless I don’t care about their respect… which is probably true for most people… but not most people on LW...
I agree that reputation (I’d say specifically credibility) is the important thing to wager, but I think any public bet implicitly does that.
If, in 2030, there are still humans on Earth’s surface, then the takeaway is “AI x-risk proponent Yudkowsky proved wrong in bet”, and Yudkowsky loses credibility. (See Ehrlich’s famous bet for an example of this pattern.) The upside is raising concern about AI x-risk in the present (2022).
This is a good trade-off if you think increasing concern about AI x-risk in 2022-2029 is worth decreasing concern about AI x-risk in 2030+. Of course, if AGI turns out to be invented before 2030, the trade-off seems good. In the event that it’s not, the trade-off seems bad.
Well, in that case I’ll have you know that about two years ago I made a bet for $1000 with Tobias Baumann. Resolution date was also 2030. Can send more details if you like.
And in general if anyone wants to send me money now, I’ll promise to pay you back with interest in 2030. But please only do this if it doesn’t create significant administrative overhead for me… in fact come to think of it this probably would, I don’t see how this is worth it for me… hmm..
Anyone who would accord me higher status and respect if they saw me making such bets should totally make such bets with me. Unless I don’t care about their respect… which is probably true for most people… but not most people on LW...