Bryan says he knows all this stuff, and these were just the best odds he could get. New interpretation: Bryan’s having fun betting, and Eliezer’s smart enough to know that if he loses, he just got a long-term loan from Bryan at a somewhat favorable rate.
I just emailed Bryan to point the loan opportunity cost issue out. I’ll update if I hear back.
Thanks for looking into this!
Bryan says he knows all this stuff, and these were just the best odds he could get. New interpretation: Bryan’s having fun betting, and Eliezer’s smart enough to know that if he loses, he just got a long-term loan from Bryan at a somewhat favorable rate.
IIRC Eliezer made some joke about how Bryan’s never lost a bet and maybe he can leverage this miraculous regularity to reduce AI risk :)