None of us agreed to do so, and people may have been more hesitant had this been the plan.
I’ll share mine, though they’re not very interesting: 75% Obama wins the general election, 80% Yudkowsky doesn’t finish MoR this year, 80% Burning Man tickets sell out by the end of June (95% by the end of July).
This seems far too low to me. It’s already been a year and a half since the creation of the fic, and Harry hasn’t even finished his first year. Furthermore, it’s been 3 months since the last update of MoR.
Four months, and the real question is how many arcs are left. I suspect there aren’t that many.
(Though 80% might still be low—this is my first time trying to put probabilities to my predictions!)
I’d give at least 50% odds that the fic finishes before the start of Harry’s second year, and more than 90% that it finishes before the end of his second year.
I’d give at least 50% odds that the fic finishes before the start of Harry’s second year, and more than 90% that it finishes before the end of his second year.
I’d give at least 50% odds that Harry leaves school and does something else before the end of his second year, but that this is not the end of the fic.
Will you publish them on LW?
None of us agreed to do so, and people may have been more hesitant had this been the plan.
I’ll share mine, though they’re not very interesting: 75% Obama wins the general election, 80% Yudkowsky doesn’t finish MoR this year, 80% Burning Man tickets sell out by the end of June (95% by the end of July).
You can make some ok money on Intrade if you think 75% Obama wins. Current market thinks it’s about 51%.
This seems far too low to me. It’s already been a year and a half since the creation of the fic, and Harry hasn’t even finished his first year. Furthermore, it’s been 3 months since the last update of MoR.
Four months, and the real question is how many arcs are left. I suspect there aren’t that many. (Though 80% might still be low—this is my first time trying to put probabilities to my predictions!)
I’d give at least 50% odds that the fic finishes before the start of Harry’s second year, and more than 90% that it finishes before the end of his second year.
I’d give at least 50% odds that Harry leaves school and does something else before the end of his second year, but that this is not the end of the fic.
Good possibility to raise, but 50% seems way too high to me.