To be clear, I think the exact scheme in A proposal for humanity in the future probably doesn’t work as described because the exact level of payment is wrong and more minimally we’ll probably be able to make a much better approach in the future.
This seemed important to explicitly call out (and it wasn’t called out explicitly in the post), though I do think it is reasonable to outline a concrete baseline proposal for how this can work.
In particular, the proposal randomly picks 10 planets per simulation. I think the exact right amount of payment will depend on how many sims/predictions you run and will heavily depend on some of the caveats under Ways this hope could fail. I think you probably get decent results if the total level of payment is around 1⁄10 million, with returns to higher aggregate payment etc.
As far as better approaches, I expect that you’ll be doing a bunch of stuff more efficient than sims and this will be part of a more general acausal trade operation among other changes.
To be clear, I think the exact scheme in A proposal for humanity in the future probably doesn’t work as described because the exact level of payment is wrong and more minimally we’ll probably be able to make a much better approach in the future.
This seemed important to explicitly call out (and it wasn’t called out explicitly in the post), though I do think it is reasonable to outline a concrete baseline proposal for how this can work.
In particular, the proposal randomly picks 10 planets per simulation. I think the exact right amount of payment will depend on how many sims/predictions you run and will heavily depend on some of the caveats under Ways this hope could fail. I think you probably get decent results if the total level of payment is around 1⁄10 million, with returns to higher aggregate payment etc.
As far as better approaches, I expect that you’ll be doing a bunch of stuff more efficient than sims and this will be part of a more general acausal trade operation among other changes.