Note that all the counterfactual queries in this example are physically grounded—they are properties of the territory, not the map. We can actually go swap the resistor in a circuit and see what happens.
Objection: unless we actually do go swap the resistor, it seems that you are grounding counterfactuals in more counterfactuals. (you used the word “can!”) Unless you mean to ground them in possibles, like shminux advocates.
I’m kind of amazed it took this long for someone to bring that up; I figured it would be the very first comment!
I think this is basically the right argument to make, and the conclusion to draw is that counterfactuals need to be in the map, not the territory, at the end of the day.
With that out of the way, I think the main takeaway of the OP/discussion is: yes, counterfactuals are ultimately in the map, but that does not imply anywhere near as much subjectivity as it might seem at first glance. A map has to match the territory in order to be useful; a map which matches the territory is an instrumentally convergent tool for a wide variety of objectives. Just as that puts some major constraints on probabilities, it also puts some major constraints on counterfactuals.
Objection: unless we actually do go swap the resistor, it seems that you are grounding counterfactuals in more counterfactuals. (you used the word “can!”) Unless you mean to ground them in possibles, like shminux advocates.
I’m kind of amazed it took this long for someone to bring that up; I figured it would be the very first comment!
I think this is basically the right argument to make, and the conclusion to draw is that counterfactuals need to be in the map, not the territory, at the end of the day.
With that out of the way, I think the main takeaway of the OP/discussion is: yes, counterfactuals are ultimately in the map, but that does not imply anywhere near as much subjectivity as it might seem at first glance. A map has to match the territory in order to be useful; a map which matches the territory is an instrumentally convergent tool for a wide variety of objectives. Just as that puts some major constraints on probabilities, it also puts some major constraints on counterfactuals.